Sunday, November 21, 2010

Market Thought 22.11.10

A slight positive start of the day with few Asian shares up on Ireland Bailout on Sunday. At the time of writing, the NIKKEI is up 111 points, while China and Hong Kong is down marginally replicating the impact of Friday’s reserve requirement hike by the PBoC.The local NIFTY index is up by 578 points and SENSEX is higher by 200 points.

High yielding and commodity currencies are up against the greenback on European developments ignoring China as of now. Euro and GBP were up by 0.37% and 0.25% against the US dollar from Friday’s closing. AUD is up by half a percent and CAD is up 0.25%.Crude oil is up by 0.5% at electronic trading.

The International Monetary Fund and European Union agreed Sunday to support an emergency bailout for near-bankrupt Ireland. The exact size of the rescue package is still to be worked out and should be around 80 to 90 billion euros.

The market interest rate on two-year Irish bonds rocketed from 3.95 percent on Nov. 1 to 6.69 percent by Nov. 11, making the cost of borrowing prohibitively expensive for a government already deep in debt.

This may cool down selling interest in riskier asset classes but cannot rule out long liquidation in the coming days.

Commodity market for the day: Slight upside is possible in Base Metals, bullion and energy. Major upside seems unlikely. The economic data calendar is almost empty today except the Euro zone consumer confidence report for November at 8.30 PM.

Currencies Market: Looks positive for EUR and GBP today. One can look for buying EURINR cross pair. The USDINR is expected to stay in ranges.

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