FX Trades- Sell USDINR 55 Dec Put

After a sharp recovery from a low of 52 towards 56.10 levels, the market started easing off and seen a dip towards 54 levels which is just 50% retracement of the recovery trend. The market has formed a falling wedge and rates have broken the upper trend line of the pattern suggesting a possible upward momentum. Currently, the market is trading below the 10 and 20 day’s EMA level and RSI is neutral around 0.50 levels. 

The major support for the market is around 54 levels and as long as it holds the same, weakness is less likely. The resistance is seen at 55.10 levels.

The formation of falling wedge at intermediate upward trend along with the behavior of market at Fibonacci levels suggest possible recovery.  Recommend buying USDINR Dec future with stop loss below 54 with possible target of 55.10 and then 55.50.

Strategy:  USDINR Dec 55 Put Option: Sell around 0.80-0.90 targeting 0-0.05 with stop loss above 1.15

  

INR today

The Indian rupee is standing around 54.26 today on occasional boost by US dollar and sentiment drive of FDI in multi brand retail. From local markets, the IIP data for October is to be released at 11 PM, expected to read above 5%. In the global markets, everyone is waiting to see outcome of FOMC meeting. The US dollar has declined before the meeting whiles the Euro, GBP gained on expectation of further loosening of monetary policy. Chart suggest further appreciation of the Indian rupee while the level of 54.04 need to break.

Currency traders can look for selling USDINR pairs in the future market with stops above 54.76 levels.

INR Today

The market changed after Mayawati backed UPA on FDI, NIFTY is currently up by almost 25 points after trading down 50 points at the early Asian trading. The Rupee is strengthening v/s the US dollar and quoting at 54.27 at the interbank market. Looks the 54 level will be tested or probably it may move to 53.50.

In global markets, the Euro and GBP is currently down marginally. EURUSD is broadly strong above 1.30 mark and likely to test 1.33 in the short term 

FX Today- Euro may rise to 1.33

The rupee is mostly trading in ranges v/s the US dollar. The key to watch is the voting on FDI due at 5 PM. At the time of writing the spot USDINR is at 54.50 mark, down 0.34%. Clarity in Indian rupee should come in the evening.

Globally, US dollar is seen sliding v/s the Euro and GBP while gaining v/s the Japanese Yen. The US dollar is mixed v/s Asian currencies ex-Japan.

As expected the EURUSD rose above 1.31 mark and likely to find resistance at 1.3140 and breakout above may push it till 1.33 mark. The EURGBP is also on the rise and likely to advance towards 0.8160 levels.

Today’s data to watch

Time		Event	For	Survey	Prior
14:25	GE	PMI Services	Nov F	48	48
14:30	EC	PMI Composite	Nov F	45.8	45.8
14:30	EC	PMI Services	Nov F	45.7	45.7
15:00	UK	PMI Services	Nov	51	50.6
15:30	EC	Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY)	Oct	-0.80%	-0.80%
18:45	US	ADP Employment Change	Nov	125K	158K
20:30	US	Factory Orders	Oct	0.00%	4.80%
20:30	US	ISM Non-Manf. Composite	Nov	53.5	54.2

Week in Preview: Forex Traders Eye 5 Central Bank Announcements Next Week

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Forex Today- Technicals

Technically, the spot USDINR has a resistance at 54.75 levels and breakout above the same only may bring in notable recovery. Otherwise, it is less likely the pair to recover faster. On the backdrop of positive news from the Euro zone on Greece buying back govt bonds may put downward pressure to USDINR.

The EURUSD is looking promising at 1.3030 and likely to advance towards 1.31 on Intra day.  The EURGBP cross also looking promising while a breakout above 0.8130 is necessary.

The USDJPY retracing back, break below 81.70 will bring in reversal of the uptrend. While, breakout above 82.80 should keep the uptrend alive