Rupee Today

The INR rose to 54.34 today during early inter banking dealing hours.  Much of the rally was supported by strong equities as benchmark indices posted fresh yearly high today. FII inflows have driven local market in recent times. As per data from SEBI, inflows from FII to local equities crossed Rs 1, 00,000 crore mark on Tuesday. It is the second highest inflow in a calendar year ever. As per a report available from BNP paribus, bulk of the FII inflows into India have come from Asia ex Japan and Global Emerging Markets funds – about 55% of total inflows. Despite strong Capital account inflows, the rupee is less likely to see any major reversal of the broader trend as current account remains weak.

………..The Indian GDP data is announced just now with a reading of 5.3%, in line with street expectation. The data is less likely to impact markets as already seen discounted.  From US yesterday, the Q3 GDP came good with a reading of 2.7% despite drop in consumer spending and business investment.

In the global FX market, the Euro and GBP is still strong v/s the US dollar quoting at 1.30 and 1.6045 respectively. Asian currencies were mostly higher today backed by stronger regional equities.

Today, we can expect some swings in USDINR (Spot) with a band of 54.40-54.80 during the remaining hours of the day.

INR around 55

The rupee is now seen appreciating v/s the US dollar after a strong upsurge in local share indices backed by possible FII inflows. As expected the USDINR dropped to 55 mark and currently quoting around 54.98. It is one of the sharpest rise since 2-3 weeks. In the global market, dollar is weak v/s the euro and pound, and against Asian currencies too. Market is waiting to see some good numbers from the US. Looking at the current trend, the rupee may rise to 54.50 levels in next 2-3 sessions.

Source-bloomberg

INR Today

Today, the INR is seen trading positive before the GDP data due tomorrow. The USDINR pair has dropped to 55.37 at the time of writing. It rose as high as 55.88 on 26^th November. Gains in Asian currencies along with firm local stock indices have been pushing the USDINR to retrace back. The GDP data to be released tomorrow is expected to come with a reading of 5.3% and it is already discounted in the market.  Today, we may see moderate appreciation of the Rupee towards 55.00 levels at interbank dealing.

Major data releases today

Time ( IST)	Country	Event	For	Survey	Prior
2:25:00	GE	Unemployment Rate (s.a)	Nov	6.90%	6.90%
15:30	EC	Euro-Zone Indust. Confidence	Nov	-17.1	-18
15:30	EC	Euro-Zone Economic Confidence	Nov	84.5	84.5
15:30	EC	Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence	Nov F	-26.9	-26.9
19:00	US	GDP QoQ (Annualized)	3Q S	2.80%	2.00%
19:00	US	Personal Consumption	3Q S	1.90%	2.00%
19:00	US	GDP Price Index	3Q S	2.80%	2.80%
19:00	US	Core PCE QoQ	3Q S	1.30%	1.30%
19:00	US	Initial Jobless Claims	24-Nov	390K	410K

My View on Aluminium at Financial Chronicle

Oil Reserves may last for 54 years ( BP data)

Country	Reserves as on 2011	% of Total	R/P Ratio
US	30.9	1.9%	10.8
Canada	175.2	10.6%	*
Mexico	11.4	0.7%	10.6
Total North America	217.5	13.2%	41.7
Argentina	2.5	0.2%	11.4
Brazil	15.1	0.9%	18.8
Colombia	2.0	0.1%	5.9
Ecuador	6.2	0.4%	33.2
Peru	1.2	0.1%	22.2
Trinidad & Tobago	0.8	0.1%	16.7
Venezuela	296.5	17.9%	*
Other S. & Cent. America	1.1	0.1%	22.1
Total S. & Cent. America	325.4	19.7%	*
Azerbaijan	7.0	0.4%	20.6
Denmark	0.8	*	10.0
Italy	1.4	0.1%	34.3
Kazakhstan	30.0	1.8%	44.7
Norway	6.9	0.4%	9.2
Romania	0.6	*	18.7
Russian Federation	88.2	5.3%	23.5
Turkmenistan	0.6	W	7.6
United Kingdom	2.8	0.2%	7.0
Uzbekistan	0.6	*	18.9
Other Europe & Eurasia	2.2	0.1%	15.2
Total Europe & Eurasia	141.1	8.5%	22.3
Iran	151.2	9.1%	95.8
Iraq	143.1	8.7%	*
Kuwait	101.5	6.1%	97.0
Oman	5.5	0.3%	16.9
Qatar	24.7	1.5%	39.3
Saudi Arabia	265.4	16.1%	65.2
Syria	2.5	0.2%	20.6
United Arab Emirates	97.8	5.9%	80.7
Yemen	2.7	0.2%	32.0
Other Middle East	0.7	*	37.1
Total Middle East	795.0	48.1%	78.7
Algeria	12.2	0.7%	19.3
Angola	13.5	0.8%	21.2
Chad	1.5	0.1%	36.1
Rep. of Congo (Brazzaville)	1.9	0.1%	18.0
Egypt	4.3	0.3%	16.0
Equatorial Guinea	1.7	0.1%	18.5
Gabon	3.7	0.2%	41.2
Libya	47.1	2.9%	*
Nigeria	37.2	2.3%	41.5
Sudan	6.7	0.4%	40.5
Tunisia	0.4	*	15.0
Other Africa	2.2	0.1%	27.0
Total Africa	132.4	8.0%	41.2
Australia	3.9	0.2%	21.9
Brunei	1.1	0.1%	18.2
China	14.7	0.9%	9.9
India	5.7	0.3%	18.2
Indonesia	4.0	0.2%	11.8
Malaysia	5.9	0.4%	28.0
Thailand	0.4	*	3.5
Vietnam	4.4	0.3%	36.7
Other Asia Pacific	1.1	0.1%	10.4
Total Asia Pacific	41.3	2.5%	14.0
Total World	1652.6		54.2

Proved reserves of oil - Generally taken to be those quantities that geological and engineering information indicates with reasonable certainty can be recovered in the future from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions.

Reserves-to-production (R/P) ratio - If the reserves remaining at the end of any year are divided by the production in that year, the result is the length of time that those remaining reserves would last if production were to continue at that rate.                     

Source- BP Worldwide