FX Market Thought for 3rd Dec,2010

The Indian rupee was mostly stable against the US dollar on Thursday with the Dec contract survived above the 45.40 levels. The day’s trade was mostly in the range of 45.45-45.59 despite weak US dollar against the euro and the GBP. The EURINR gained modestly tracking directly from EURUSD in a stable USDINR environment. The GBPINR was sideways between 71.85-72.25.

In global markets, European currencies were slightly firm against the US dollar, on mild short covering and tight CDS spread in the European bond market. The EURUSD rose to 1.32 and GBPUSD returned above 1.56 marks. US stocks advanced for second day, up with DJIA which gained 96 points. UK’s FTSE closed up 2.22% and German DAX up by 1.32%.

In mid day news yesterday, IMF considered the detoriating situation of the Euro zone and said recovery in Europe remained helplessly sluggish. The IMF MD Dominique Strauss-Kahn ruled out any possibility of an impending double-dip recession.

In other developments, ECB gave some boost to markets. European Central Bank bond-buying actions spoke louder than the central bank president's measured words as per market participants. President Jean-Claude Trichet told a news conference the ECB would continue to conduct its main refinancing operations and the special term refinancing operations as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment "for as long as necessary and at least until the end of the third maintenance period of 2011 on April 12, 2011.Apart from that, Spain brought managed to sell €2.4bn of three-year bonds to investors, was 2.2 times oversubscribed.

It seems a temporality relief to the market, but concern remains on the public debt trouble. Any major pullback in the EURUSD is a indication to sell.

In data releases, US employment figures to catch attention of the market despite EU remains the driving factor. As per ADP private sector data on Thursday, U.S. private employers added 93,000 jobs in November, the biggest rise since November 2007, after an upwardly revised gain of 82,000 the month before.US Nonfarm payroll data due today is expected to show a 140,000 plus in November

For today, USDINR is a good bet to buy at lower levels, for Dec contract 45.25-28 seems to be a good level. EUINR and GBPINR cross trading seem risky.

Market Thought 02 Dec, 2010

USDINR Dec: The market has opened lower tracking correction of the US dollar index during the overnight session and firm global stocks. The Nifty has opened firm and is up by 62 points at the time of writing. The DJIA closed up 249 points yesterday in New York.

For today, the pair may see good support around 45.30-45.35 levels and if the level is maintained then a pullback can be seen from there towards the resistance of 45.55 levels. We recommend buying on dips towards the support of 45.30-45.35 levels for intraday. Preferred stop los below 45.20 levels.


EURINR Dec: The market opened a tad lower despite recovery of the EURUSD and USDINR fell further in the morning session today. The EURUSD recovered to 1.3181 levels yesterday and currently trading around 1.3120 levels. Today, if yesterday’s high is broken the pair may gain towards the major resistance of 1.33 levels.

The EURUSD prospect seems a bit positive for the day while weak USDINR may hinder a major recovery. The EURINR pair may see some support at 59.45-59.50 levels. The resistance is seen at 59.80 and then 59.95 levels. Risky traders can take longs on a decline towards 59.50 levels for a target of 59.75. Preferred stop los is 59.34.


GBPINR Dec: The pair opened down almost 25 paisa on weak USDINR despite GBPUSD managed to show some mild recovery yesterday. The GBPUSD major pair is expected to take resistance is seen at 1.5645 levels and above that recovery can be seen towards 1.5723 levels. If fails, then downward trend may resume towards the support of 1.5550.

The GBPINR pair is expected to stay weak below the 71.25-71.30 levels. The support is seen at 70.70-70.80 range. The market is expected to move in the broad range for the day. Buying at the lower levels is preferred.

JPYINR Dec: The cross pair opened lower on gains in the USDJPY along with decline in the USDINR pair further during the morning session. The USDJPY may see upward trend above the 84.40 levels and may see approaching 85.00 today. The support is seen at 83.80 levels. The UDJPY seems positive for the day.

Weak USDINR and firm USDJPY may keep the Indian cross lower for the day. It is better to stay on the selling side. Resistance is seen at 54.45 levels. The support is seen at 54.00 and then 53.85 levels.